Google “Are we in a recession?”. If you wanted a concrete answer, you didn’t get one – only ‘yes’, ‘no’, and everything in between. You’ll have to wait until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) says there is one. Then it’s official.
And then the market falls. Right?
The market is forward looking. And recessions are old news. The NBER tends to be late to the game. The global financial crisis is a great example. Take a look…
The recession is in gray. By the time it was announced, stocks had dropped over 40%. Most of the damage had been done. The rebound began shortly after and continued until the NBER announced the end of the recession. But by then, the market had already made its own announcement. And it wasn’t one you could read about in the papers.
This lesson applies to all headlines. Once news breaks, it’s old news, and the market really doesn’t care about it.
So forget the headlines and stay focused on the long-term. It’s the only path to success.
John, Bill, Mark & Melanie