Recession? What Recession?

John Noonan Uncategorized

We’ve all done it – being so sure of something, then coming to realize we were wrong.

Usually it doesn’t matter. “The Celtics are absolutely winning it all this year” (John, last year). Or, “Wine country? My wife would much rather go to Vegas” (same).

When you’re wrong there, no biggie. Maybe you get the cold shoulder. But in finance, it’s a different story. Check out these headlines from the beginning of the year:

Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023 (

A recession might be coming. Here’s what it could look like : NPR

A recession in 2023 is now inevitable. Layoffs in tech and finance will spread to other sectors | Fortune

Economists Place 70% Chance for US Recession in 2023 – Bloomberg

All dead wrong. Well, the last one was only 70% wrong. But the one before that sure was! “Inevitable” – wow. Here’s what happened: no recession, and world equities are up 11% for 2023.

It’s not the authors who worry us. They won’t even get the cold shoulder for writing these fallacies. It’s the readers who saw advice in something written supposedly to entertain. Remember: these articles are written for clicks, not for your betterment. And where’s the entertainment in selling it all in January out of fear, only to watch the rest of the world prosper?

Regardless of their intention, these articles can be quite convincing. A year ago, many people reached out concerned about a recession, asking if their portfolio would be OK. A few were convinced that all hell would break loose this year. It’s OK. We get it. It’s not your fault. We blame the usual suspects: these articles, CNBC, Bloomberg, all the magazines, the talking heads, your neighbors even.

Let this be a warning. The media would have you time the market – get in, get out, get back in again. Be afraid, don’t be afraid. On and on. But it doesn’t work. Not because this year was up. Because no one knows which year will be up. Or down. All you can do – all you should do – to be successful is be patient and disciplined. And call us when you’re unsure of either.


Your Great Oak Team