It’s OK. We’ve been here before. In fact, it’s a good thing. How can a down market be good? Well, without down markets, we would not have much of an up market. That is, risk equals reward. Stocks have averaged about 10% forever. And that’s more than cash, bonds, commodities, CDs, gold and other metals, annuities, currencies, collectibles, and just about anything else. But for that long-term reward, we must absolutely experience some short-term suffering – the manifestation of risk. They are inextricably related. Anything said to the contrary is either a sales pitch or a lie. And all the …
Frequently “Oaked” Questions
You Asked, So We’ll Answer FOQ: Why are people talking about a government shutdown? Short: There might be one. Long: Since a 1980 interpretation of the 1884 Antideficiency Act, the government must shut down if Congress fails to pass a budget and can’t pay its bills. During a shutdown, only departments covering the safety of human life or protection of property will continue to operate (military, federal hospitals, etc.). While a deal was recently reached to hopefully get us through September, it may not be enough. Congress really has until June to get something more substantial in place. …
2022: Year in Review
2022 brought us two things: a bad market and some rule changes. First, the market. We’ll let you fill in your own description: “That was a really ________ market.” We wonder how many of you wouldn’t share with an eight-year-old what just came to mind. We don’t blame you! We peaked at the beginning of the year and never looked back as we slid slowly, painfully for nine months into bear market territory, with US stocks shedding 19.6% by December 31st. Remember the “Covid drop”? 35% in 33 days. Yet, last year felt worse as the slide just dragged on …
Markets Don’t Wait for Official Announcements
Google “Are we in a recession?”. If you wanted a concrete answer, you didn’t get one – only ‘yes’, ‘no’, and everything in between. You’ll have to wait until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) says there is one. Then it’s official. And then the market falls. Right? The market is forward looking. And recessions are old news. The NBER tends to be late to the game. The global financial crisis is a great example. Take a look… The recession is in gray. By the time it was announced, stocks had dropped over 40%. Most of the damage had …